Briefing on the current situation

Considering the howareyou’s and howisit’s and whatisgoingonthere’s that I get from my real and e-friends and FB friends, I’m starting regular updates on the situation in Ukraine as I see it.

Following the Maidan and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation, the unrest spread over the east and a part of the southern Ukraine. A few weeks later, the unrest turned into a mixture of an armed separatist movement, civil war and a conventional war between Ukraine and Russia; throw in a bunch of marauding bandits there, polarized majority of the population, and add a group of Ukrainian MP’s who are likely to be financing and openly support the fighters (in the attempt to save their financial and economic interests in the region) – and you’ll see about a half of the picture.

It’s a real war no doubt, with victims count (confirmed) exceeding a few thousands, both between the fighting parties and civilians; the number of people who had to leave their places of residence approaches, by some sources, a million.

The fighting is mostly limited to the two regions with administrative centers in Luhansk (ca. 450,000 inhabitants) and Donetsk (with almost 1,000,000 population). In fact, the fighting is limited to a smaller part of the regions (daily maps are easily googlable) while the situation on the rest of the Ukrainian territory can be described by a range of definitions from “absolutely OK and peaceful” to “on the verge of an armed conflict”, depending on the distance to the epicenter of separatism.

There are no simple and comprehensive explanations of the events.

The first question is why it is all happening. Well I can offer a very general answer. The Maidan events created a real threat for many, and were perceived as a threat by as many others, and the reaction followed. I’ll elaborate on it if/when I have time.

The next question is what it will lead to. It’s absolutely unpredictable as we don’t know the true intentions of some of those involved. Also, in my understanding, the situation has gone too far to be solved without more victims. Under the current circumstances, any solution offered means death or vital damage (political, financial, or physical) for some parties involved, and these parties will keep fighting for their lives.

One of the crucial questions is Russian Federation’s involvement in the developments. I’m absolutely confident that it’s a – or, more probably, the key factor. Russian president Putin denies RF’s participation (just like he had denied and later admitted the presence of RF regular army units in the Crimea) but there is abundant evidence, and the growing number of Russian troopers getting home as “cargo 200” (euphemism for killed in the fighting) proves it. In most cases, thougth, the recent servicemen turn out to be “on vacation” or have left the army service (I guess without knowing it).

Yet another crucial issue it the position of the West (EU, NATO, USA). The West has been trying to stay away as long as they could, and that’s understandable: the economic ties, probability of huge losses, and future elections considerations, etc. Not challenging a bully who’s stronger than you is quite rational. The problem is, the impudence of a bully that sees no resistance tends to grow; having betrayed Ukraine (the “betrayal” refers to the Budapest memorandum), can the West be sure that no Baltic country will follow? What degree of concern will they express if the sane scenario is implemented in Kazakhstan?

Ukraine has poor chances of surviving in case of a “real” war. I hope Putin understands that his chances of surviving in case he launches a large-scale war in Ukraine are equally miserable.